
Changing Trade Horses in Mid-Stream?
Opinions differ on how replacing USTR will affect struggling WTO talks
WASHINGTON, DC - 04/21/06 - The unexpected decision by President George Bush to name US Trade Representative Rob Portman to the post of head of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is drawing mixed reviews from both government officials and private sector trade analysts at home and abroad.
Some feel that the move signals waning interest in Washington in the on- going Doha Round of World Trade Organizations talks at a time when negotiators are struggling to meet the April 30 deadline for reaching agreement on several major components of a comprehensive trade deal slated for completion by the end of the year.
European Union Commissioner Peter Mandelson issued a barbed statement that qualified praise of Portman and Deputy US Trade Representative Susan Schwab, Portman's nominated replacement, with implied criticism about the timing of the move.
"I have very much enjoyed working with Rob Portman and I shall be sorry to see him go from this post," said Mandelson. "We will of course manage without him, but at this stage in the round, it would have been easier to manage with him."
Privately, several other EU officials were less diplomatic, suggesting that the move sent out a clear signal that the US has written-off the Doha Round as "dispensable." "On the face of it, this looks like bad news for the talks at a time when negotiations are at a fragile point and it is bound to lead to further uncertainty," one unnamed official told Reuters, adding that "the one bright spot could be that the US would use the change of personnel as cover to moderate its demands for wholesale farm liberalization in the Doha Round."
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), whose panel oversees trade agreements, also expressed concern over the move.
"To have Rob Portman leaving that post at this crucial time - though it's my understanding he might not be leaving for 30 days or so - is bad news as far as the Doha Round is concerned," he said.
After taking office in March 2005, Portman rapidly gained a good reputation among trade ministers in the Doha Round negotiations, kicking life into the talks with an offer to make substantial cuts in long-standing US farm subsidies.
Schwab has long experience in the trade field, having started her career as an agricultural trade negotiator in the USTR before moving first to the US embassy in Tokyo as a trade specialist.
She then to work for Jack Danforth, then a Republican senator for Missouri, who chaired a trade subcommittee in the Senate in the 1980s, and served at Motorola in a high-level management position before serving as Dean of the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy. She was named Deputy USTR last November. "Susan Schwab will do a terrific job as USTR, [but] Portman had a lot of clout on the Hill and Susan will have to develop that," said Bill Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, a Washington, DC trade promotion group.
"To me it sends a signal that things aren't moving as smoothly as anticipated on the trade deal," commented Tom Buis, president of the National Farmers Union. "It may be a realization that Doha is not going to be the success that the administration hoped it would be."
Peter Allgeier, US ambassador to the 149-member WTO in Geneva, expressed a more positive view on the decision to replace Portman with Schwab telling the press that the transition will be virtually "seamless."
There will be "no change in US trade policy or in our negotiating objectives as these are the President's objectives and trade policy, not of any individual," said Allgeier.
"Susan Schwab has been Rob's right hand as one of the deputies in Washington over the last six months. This enables us to move forward without losing stride. The President has trusted her to carry out his agenda," he said.
"We've got our instructions, we've got our teams, we will be pushing in these next few weeks just as hard as we were before this announcement," said Allgeier.
"I can assure you that the US will be fully represented at the appropriate level at any meeting that takes place here," he said, adding that he hoped for a speedy confirmation of Schwab by the Senate.
"While we regret Ambassador Portman's departure from USTR, we applaud the President's choice of a solid consensus-builder for the key spot of heading OMB," said Peter Robinson, president of the New York-based US Council for International Business (USCIB).
Portman "has made a special effort to build bipartisan support for expanded trade, especially in last year's Congressional passage of the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement," he said. "We welcome Ambassador Schwab's nomination as his successor. She is a skilled and experienced negotiator, and we are glad that this key position will not go unfilled at a critical time in ongoing world trade talks."
John Murphy, a vice president at the US Chamber of Commerce, echoed Robinson's positive spin on the move, saying that what the trade talks need now is not a "grand visionary," but someone like Schwab "who can get under the hood and tinker with the engine."
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