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Retail container traffic to break last year's record three months in a row, says industry group

WASHINGTON, DC – 8/03/07 – Container traffic at the nation’s major retail ports will top last year's record high for three months in a row beginning in August as cargo destined for sale during the all-important holiday season begins to move across the docks, according to the latest monthly Port Tracker Report (PTR).

The PTR is published monthly by the Washington, DC-headquartered National Retail Federation and trade analyst Global Insight.

"Now that we're in peak season, August is going to be a very busy month and is expected to break the record set last October," Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said.

September, he said, “will be slightly slower but will still top last October, and this October will set another whole new record. Despite the heavy volume, all the ports we cover are operating without congestion from harbor to gate, and shippers can be confident the system will have adequate capacity to provide acceptable performance for the remainder of the year.”

Rail performance for getting cargo away from the ports, Bingham said, “continues to be below last year's levels, but is still acceptable and should be adequate for the peak season surge in volume."

The PTR set the congestion rating for the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach at "moderate" last month because of the threat of a strike by the marine clerks that handle cargo dicumentation at both ports that could have seriously disrupted operations.

But the Marine Clerks Association affiliated with Local 63 of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) agreed on a new contract and the ports have returned to their previous congestion rating of "low."

The other US ports covered by the PTR – Oakland, Tacoma and Seattle on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast – are all currently rated "low" in terms of congestion, the same as last month.

Nationwide, the ports surveyed handled 1.45 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU) of container traffic in June, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available.

That was up 3.2% from June 2006 and up 6.2% from this May. Volume continued up in July, which was estimated at 1.5 million TEU, up 8.1% from July 2006.

Ports in the survey are expected to set a record high this month, which is forecast at 1.56 million TEU, up 5% from August 2006 and easily breaking last October's record of 1.51 million TEU. Volume should drop to 1.52 million TEU in September, up 2.1% from last September and continuing to top last October.

This October, traditionally the busiest month of the year, is forecast at 1.57 million TEU, a 4.1% increase from a year ago and a new record.

After the October peak, traffic should drop to 1.46 million TEU in November (up 3.2% from November 2006) and 1.4 million TEU in December (up 7.9% from December 2006).

One TEU is a 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

The Port Tracker Report, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion.

The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services.

The organization represents an industry with more than 1.6 million US retail establishments, more than 24 million employees and 2006 sales of $4.7 trillion.

As the industry’s umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations.

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