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LONDON, England - Nine months after the collapse of the World Trade Organization's Cancún meeting, its members are picking up the pieces again. The Doha trade round, which seemed headed for oblivion at the turn of the year, now appears on the brink of resuscitation. Although big obstacles remain to be resolved in a short time, some elements of a deal that could keep it alive are starting to fall into place.

Much of the credit goes to Robert Zoellick, US trade representative. Despite his threat at Cancún to abandon the Doha talks in favor of bilateral and regional trade deals, he has worked hard since January to bring others back to the negotiating table and focus minds on practical problem-solving.

His leadership is all the more commendable in a US election year, when Washington's interest in trade negotiations is usually minimal.

Pascal Lamy and Franz Fischler, the European Union's trade and agriculture commissioners, also deserve praise for accepting an end to farm export subsidies and for backing down from controversial demands for new trade rules. The only pity is that Brussels did not make the concessions earlier: had it done so, Cancún might well have had a different outcome.

Still, by reducing two important points of contention, particularly as far as developing countries are concerned, Brussels' offer should improve the atmosphere at talks between ministers from rich and poor WTO members in Paris later this week.

Mr. Zoellick hopes they will further narrow differences on tackling industrial tariffs and farm subsidies - where there have recently been signs of convergence - and clear the decks for hard bargaining on lowering agricultural trade barriers.

That issue poses the stiffest challenge to hopes of agreeing by the end of July a negotiating framework for the Doha round. As well as being technically complex, it pits powerful political interests against each other.

Not only do farm exporting countries' demands for improved market access go much further than the EU, Japan and other agricultural protectionists are ready to contemplate; the talks are bedeviled by strains within the Group of 20 developing countries that has emerged as a pivotal player in farm trade.

The US says more advanced developing countries must open their markets to persuade its farmers to accept lower subsidies. Brazil, the G-20 leader, seems ready to move. But India, which is obsessed by self-sufficiency in staple foods, continues to balk. Failure to break the stalemate would dash chances of a package deal this summer.

Technically, there are ways out of the dilemma. The EU and Japan can help by agreeing to cut deeply their barriers to other imports in return for lenient treatment on "sensitive" items, such as dairy products and rice. India could be offered a gradualist path to liberalization. But those options call for a bigger investment of political will than has so far been in evidence.

Aggressive farm liberalizers will be tempted to reject such compromises. However, they may have to choose between accepting half a loaf now - with the possibility of fighting for more later - and losing the best chance in a generation to reform agricultural trade by holding out for a perfect deal.

An agreement this summer would only mark the end of the beginning and pave the way for months, probably years, of tough negotiations, with no guarantee of eventual success. But failure would be an even bigger setback than Cancún. Ministers need to keep that harsh reality clearly in mind in the next few, crucial weeks.

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Business Standard of New Delhi, 12/22/08