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12/06/04 - The 90-year ban on the export of Hass avocados from Mexico to California will be lifted in 2007, despite the vocal objections of growers in California - the country's primary avocado supplier - who claim that an infestation of weevils and moths that could accompany northbound fruit shipments would seriously damage their orchards.

Under new rules, the Department of Agriculture in Washington, DC said it would allow Mexico to ship avocados to all 50 states year-round.

According to industry analysts, while the arrival of the Mexican-grown fruit in California could reduce prices for US consumers, estimates by the Department of Commerce could cut California growers' sales by as much as 20%.

Previous regulations limited Mexican avocados to 31 northern and idwestern US states far from the nation's avocado-growing regions. What's more, imports were confined to between October 15 and April 15, when the population of insects that could damage the US crop thins out.

Mexican growers have long charged that the restrictions have been nothing more than a form of economic protectionism and a violation of free-trade agreements.
 
The impending influx of Mexican avocados is part of a broader trend in which looser trade rules, coupled with rising demand for fresh produce, have cut into the US' historic position as a net exporter of agricultural products, said the Los Angeles Times in a recent article.
 
This year, the USDA projects, farm exports will fall 10% to $56 billion, while imports will rise 6.3% to $56 billion, leaving the nation without an agricultural trade surplus for the first time since 1959. Just a decade ago, the US regularly posted farm trade surpluses above $20 billion.
 
Nancy Hirschhorn, a USDA economist, told the paper that, "This is what happens when people want to buy blueberries in January. They have to be imported."
 
In the eyes of critics, however, the US is ceding too much of its own farmers' turf, without doing enough to pry open markets abroad, where tariffs and duties remain comparatively high, the paper said.

"We have signed all these free-trade agreements with countries that export to the United States, but provide very few market opportunities for us," said Bob Schramm, a produce industry lobbyist in Washington.
 
Avocado exports to 47 states are set to start at the end of next January, while, at the request of growers, the primary avocado-producing states of California, Florida, and Hawaii will remain closed for another two years.

California is by far the largest producer in the US, supplying about nine out of 10 of the nation's avocados. The state is home to 6,500 growers, who produced 430 million pounds last year with a value of $380 million, according to the Irvine-based California Avocado Commission.
 
On average, Americans each consume about 2.5 pounds of avocados annually. 

The import rules apply only to the popular Hass variety, which accounts for more than 90% of fresh avocados in the US.

In California, avocado farmers say they are less worried about US trade figures than they are about Mexican insects - particularly three types of weevils and one moth species that are common in Mexico but are not seen in California orchards.
 
"This really scares me," Chuck Keagle, who farms an eight-acre Hass orchard in Upland, told the Times as word of the USDA's rule changes shot through the industry.
 
A weevil infestation nearly wiped out California's avocado industry in the mid-20th century, forcing many growers to burn their orchards and replant, Keagle told the Times.

Yet a USDA analysis found that under current sanitary regulations, fewer than 400 infested avocados would cross into the US each year after the trade rules were relaxed, and no more than a dozen infested avocados would have to be discarded in a producing region.
 
Mexico is the world's largest producer of avocados, turning out about 1 million tons a year. It exports a little less than 5% of its production annually to the US - or about $52 million worth last year - a figure that could easily triple in 2005.
 
According to a USDA analysis, when the restrictions on Mexican avocados are lifted next month, sales of domestic fruit could fall by about 10%, and perhaps as much as 20%, starting in 2007.

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