
TRADE - August 1 to August 15, 2004
LIBYA CONSIDERED FOR WTO MEMBERSHIP
GENEVA, Switzerland - Libya has been accepted as a candidate for membership in the World Trade Organization. WTO members agreed unanimously to allow Libya to start negotiations to join the body that sets global rules on international trade. The process likely will take several years.
Libya first applied for membership in December 2001, but the issue has never been formally put to the WTO before because it was clear that the US would oppose the request. Under WTO rules, all decisions are made by consensus.
But Libya has been slowly moving back toward international acceptance since leader Moammar Gadhafi agreed to give up his nuclear weapons program, revealed secrets about the nuclear black market, and took responsibility for the 1988 terrorist bombing of Pan Am 103, promising to pay compensation to relatives of the 270 victims. Washington has resumed formal diplomatic ties with the country, where Gadhafi has ruled for 35 years.
Libyan Ambassador Najat al-Hajjaji said it was important for her country to join the WTO, even though many developing countries complain that they don't get everything they deserve from it. "Sometimes developing countries might not get all the benefits they need, but it is something that we cannot stay outside. It is a disadvantage to the country to stay outside of this organization," she told reporters. WORLD ECONOMY SEEN GROWING AT 4.6%
LONDON, United Kingdom - The world economy is on track for its best performance since 2000 this year, thanks to an improved employment market in the US and Japan's much better than expected performance, according to a recent Reuters poll. Growth is also expected to be above trend in 2005, despite a slowdown in the world's top three economies by purchasing power parity (PPP) - the US, China, and Japan. The median forecast in the survey of 27 strategists at major banks showed global growth of 4.6%this year, making it, according to IMF, the best year since growth of 4.7% during the tech boom of 2000. For 2005, growth was seen slowing to 3.9%. Economists have raised their forecasts since a comparable poll in May, which showed growth at 4.2% in 2004 and 3.8 in 2005, because official data has been stronger than expected. The 2004 median was in line with the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which raised its global growth view in April from 4.1%. The IMF has suggested that another upward revision could be on the cards in September. Forecasts for this year ranged from 3.5% to 5.0%. The majority of forecasters - 18 of the 27 - used GDP adjusted for PPP to weight the contribution of the different countries in their calculations. Their forecasts were on average a little higher than those of economists who used total GDP, because PPP rates give greater importance to emerging markets. For example China, whose economy grew by 9.1% last year, is ranked second by PPP but only seventh by total GDP, behind much slower growing European economies. Regardless of the calculation method, all respondents saw growth slowing in 2005, as effects of rate hikes kick in. A cooling of the Chinese economy is also likely to trim global expansion next year, thanks to government moves to curb investment in red-hot sectors and limit money available for lending. But there are signs that government measures are succeeding and that China's economy may avoid the crash landing many had feared, cushioning the blow for the rest of the world. The median 3.9% global growth forecast for next year is still above the 3.5% that the global economy has averaged in the past 20 years, according to IMF figures. The range for next year was 2.8% to 4.5% with the IMF currently forecasting 4.4% growth in 2005.
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